Thursday, September 16, 2010

Total crime rates US vs Canada

Total Crime Rate/100,000 people

US: 3465 per 100,000
Canada: 6406 per 100,000

Violent Crime rate:

US: 429 per 100,000
Canada: 1314 per 100,000

2009 crime stats (change from 2008)

Murders -7.3%
Robberies - 8%
Aggravated Assault - 4.2%


Murders -1%
Robberies -2%
Aggravated Assault -1%

Gee aren't you glad we are not like the big bad US?

Update thank you JNG

Jamaica banned all guns in the mid 1970's. Since then crime has increased. Their ranking as far as murder rates is consistenly in the top 2 or 3 countries in the world:

Take look at Russia (ranked #5) and Mexico (ranked #6) also both have gun control laws that are much more restrictive than Canada (ranked #44).

Washington D.C. has the toughest gun control in all of the United States. More restrictive than Canada.
Have a look at Washington D.C.'s murder rates vs the whole country's:
2009 Murder Rate (D.C.) = 24 per 100,000
2009 Murder Rate (USA) = 5 per 100,000

Twenty percent of U.S. homicides occur in four cities with just 6% of the population—New York, Chicago, Detroit and Washington, D.C.—and each has (or, in the case of Detroit, had until 2001) a virtual prohibition on private handguns.

Comparing different countries is comparing apples to oranges. Different cultures, different histories, different economics, different politics, different everything.
Look at what happened in the USA from 1991 to present. Number of concealed carry States more than doubled. Bill Clinton's Assault Weapons Ban was killed by Bush (sunset clause), Supreme Court rules D.C.'s gun ban unconstitutional, firearms now allowed in National Parks, etc...
Basically a dramatic loosening of firearms restrictions for law abiding citizens.
Now have a close look at what happened to all their rates of crime over that period:
Their murder rate was cut in half!

The crime rate has been dropping in both countries since 1991 but it as dropped 30% more in the USA. Since 1991, Canada has increased restrictions, while the US has decreased them. Two different strategies which one had better results?


  1. The homicide rate in Canada peaked in 1975 at 3.03 per 100,000 and has dropped since then; it reached lower peaks in 1985 (2.72) and 1991 (2.69). It reached a post 1970 low of 1.73 in 2003. The average murder rate between 1970 and 1976 was 2.52, between 1977 and 1983 it was 2.67, between 1984 and 1990 it was 2.41, between 1991 and 1997 it was 2.23 and between 1998 to 2004 it was 1.82.[9] The attempted homicide rate has fallen at a faster rate than the homicide rate.[10]
    By comparison, the homicide rate in the U.S. reached 10.1 per 100,000 in 1974, peaked in 1980 at 10.7 and reached a lower peak in 1991 (10.5). The average murder rate between 1970 and 1976 was 9.4, between 1977 and 1983 it was 9.6, between 1984 and 1990 it was 9, between 1991 and 1997 it was 9.2 and between 1998 and 2004 it was 6.3. In 2004 the murder rate in the U.S. dipped below 6 per 100,000, for the first time since 1966, and as of 2009 stood at 5.0 per 100,000 [8]
    Approximately 70 percent of the total murders in the U.S. are committed with firearms, versus about 30 percent in Canada.[11]

  2. Couple of articles to ad to this:

    More guns in law-abiding hands mean less crime. The District of Columbia proves the point.

    Reading most press accounts, one would be forgiven for thinking Armageddon had arrived after the Supreme Court struck down the District's handgun ban in 2008. Predictions sprung forth from all directions that allowing more citizens to own guns and not forcing them to keep them locked up was going to threaten public safety. According to D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, more guns in homes would cause more violent crime.

    This has never been the case. Local politicians enthusiastically embraced the 1977 handgun ban predicting it would make Washington a safe place by dramatically reducing murder rates. But they were as wrong three decades ago as they are now.

    A telling story is illustrated by the murder numbers since the handgun ban and gun-lock bans were struck down. Between 2008 and 2009, the FBI's preliminary numbers indicate that murders fell nationally by 10 percent and by about 8 percent in cities that have between 500,000 and 999,999 people. Washington's population is about 590,000. During that same period of time, murders in the District fell by an astounding 25 percent, dropping from 186 to 140. The city only started allowing its citizens to own handguns for defense again in late 2008.

    Few who lived in Washington during the 1970s can forget the upswing in crime that started right after the ban was originally passed. In the five years before the 1977 ban, the murder rate fell from 37 to 27 murders per 100,000. In the five years after the gun ban went into effect, the murder rate rose back up to 35. One fact is particularly hard to ignore: D.C.'s murder rate fluctuated after 1976 but only once fell below what it was in 1976 before the ban. That aberration happened years later, in 1985.

    This correlation between the D.C. gun ban and diminished safety was not a coincidence. Look at the Windy City. Immediately after Chicago banned handguns in 1982, the murder rate, which had been falling almost continually for a decade, started to rise. Chicago's murder rate rose relative to other large cities as well. The phenomenon of higher murder rates after gun bans are passed is not just limited to the United States. Every single time a country has passed a gun ban, its murder rate soared.

    1. According to your logic the US of A should be the safest country in the world. Unfortunately you have a problem with over 50,000 people murdered with guns over the last 5 years. England had about 500. Canada approx. 1,000. There are other factors at play here and I suggest you keep working on it

    2. Parts of the US are very safe, take a look at this article by the Guardian (not exactly a mouthpiece for the NRA) and you will note that firearm homicides vary very much by state and that a general decline has being taking place. At the same time gun sales have been at a ll time high and ammunition sales for police and civilians for North America is approx 12 billion a year. If guns caused crimes, then the murder rate should be in the 100,000's per year.

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  4. A comparison of crime rates between Canada and the United States is often sought by the media, researchers and policy makers. Both countries have their own Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) survey. However, no official study on the comparability of the crime rates resulting from these surveys has been conducted.

    With the recent growth of the Internet, many unofficial crime comparisons are being performed, with very little attention paid to differences in definitions, classification, and scoring rules.

    This methodological study was undertaken to determine if police-reported crime categories could be compared between Canada and the United States. As there are only eight “index” offences in the American UCR survey (compared to over 100 in the Canadian UCR survey), the study was limited to examining these eight offences at the incident level...."

    Etc & etc

    Quotation from the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics Feasibility Study on Crime Comparisons Between Canada and the United States PDF

    The problem with amateur analysis of crime rates is the above-noted failure to pay attention to the afore-mentioned differences.
    Because when those are properly account for, Canada still compares more favourably to the US.

  5. Another issue that is lost that in the US crime rates are very uneven, from my reading 6 counties in the US have a significantly higher crime rate than the rest of the country. One day I will have to try to remove those from mix to see the effect. Also we don’t have to deal with approx 11million illegal aliens coming into the country every year, granted the majority are decent people seeking work, but you imagine that every 3 or so years the US sees an influx of people moving in and out of the country that is the equivalent to the population of Canada. thanks for taking the time to post.

    1. Colin, I applaud your analysis of crime rates between our two countries. I have a very difficult time having a discussion with those who believe disarming the law-abiding populace will reduce gun violence let alone violent crime across the board. I live in AZ, and we did have the issue of the Fast & Furious gun walking operation. However, I do not feel any more threatened with that government backed and bungled gun smuggling to drug cartels than I did before it happened. The real issue is educating people about firearms and the truth behind crime statistics. I am a big pro 2nd amendment guy. I love going to the range and shooting, going bird hunting, and my boys are finally of age where I want to get them started in the joy of shooting sports. I also know that as a father and husband, it is my responsibility to provide for and PROTECT my family. Whether in Canada or in the US, the police are there to uphold the law and aprehend criminals. Their response time is far too slow for anyone to rely on calling, waiting on the phone and hoping they get there in time. This last point about illegal immigration is insightful, and the majority of those that have bought into the scare tactics by the media and politicians that are against private citizens possessing and bearing firearms. I would have to say that although it is probably a small percentage of illegals that commit violent crimes, because of such a large influx, that percentage is still going to be several hundred thousand additional incidents violent crime. I have two very close friends from boyhood that work for the Phoenix PD, and they say in South Phoenix alone, there are mexican drug-gang related murders pretty much every week that the media doesn't report on. I would guess that if you took the statistical anomalies of the big 4 murder capitals out along with the crime associate with illegal immigration and mexican drug cartels north of the US/Mexico border, our statistics would be much closer to Canada's in regards to firearms related murders. Personally, whether in the US or Canada, I would rather only visit large cities and live in rural or outlying areas. We live 50 miles outside of Phoenix, and believe me, the drive is worth it to be in a less densely populated area.

      BC, and especially Vancouver/Sea to Sky Highway/Whistler is by far my favorite place in Canada.

      I enjoyed your post and will be returning to check out your blog in the future

  6. Thank you for posting and I agree that the US stats are badly skewed by the crime stat's of a few counties. I better get back to posting, kids, wife and work keep getting in the way!

    If you are ever up here drop a line and we try to get you out for some Canadian style range time!